“The natural state of the football fan is bitter disappointment, no matter what the score.” – Nick Hornby (author)

This is natural?

Forget it. Forget the Pats game. We always lose to them, anyway.

Let’s move on to something else: Our next game is on Monday Night, at home against the Browns. Then, it’s the Chiefs on the road. And then the Niners at home. We could win those next three games, be 8-4, and have a very different outlook.

Let’s move on some more.

Matt Kabel, co-founder of this thing of ours, raised the following point in a post-Pats game e-mail:

“I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, the Bills need to put up 20 points or they’ll lose, this has been true in 99% of games the last 3 years.”

Is that true? Hell, I’d rather do anything than focus on the last game, so I did some quick research.

Over the past three seasons, the Bills are 12-3 when they score more than 20 points. Conversely, they’re 7-17 when scoring fewer than 20. For what it’s worth, they’re 1-1 when scoring exactly 20.

So, is it as bad as 99 percent? No, but give Matt the benefit of the doubt because I don’t think he was being literal; his point, I believe, was that the team is good enough to achieve significant success if they can simply score as modestly as 20 points a game.

Adding to Matt’s credibility, here’s something ESPN’s John Clayton wrote just last year:

It sounds simple, but the stat to watch is points scored. If an offense can’t score at least 21 points a game, forget about winning a Super Bowl….

….Last season (2006), 16 teams averaged 20 or more points. Eleven of those teams made the playoffs. Ten of the 20-point teams were in the AFC….The Bears jumped from 16.3 to 26.7 points per game, finished 13-3 and reached the Super Bowl.

…The Buffalo Bills are another team that could take a big step forward on offense. QB J.P. Losman looked great running a version of the Rams’ offense last week in minicamp. With the talent on hand and improvement by Losman, the Bills could easily jump from 18.8 points per game into the 20s.

Today, of course, we trust in Trent rather than Losman. Trent has been shaky the past few games. But, he’s just about 10 minutes removed from being a rookie. This is a guy, with the talent he already has surrounding him, that can take the Bills to consistent 20-point status. Combined with our defense and special teams, this team is still in position to make something happen.

To me, coaching and player-health aside, it comes down largely to the O-Line: can these huge, huge guys consistently buy time for Trent, and push the other team forward for two yards on third and one? If so, we have a shot.

So, don’t forget, 20 or bust!

E-mail feedback and comments to Phil Mann at
pjmann at nyc.rr.com

Anyone see the movie Match Point? If not, but you plan to rent it one day, don’t read the next two paragraphs, which divulge a key plot point.

Hoping to literally get away with murder, the main character knows he needs to get rid of his victim’s ring – which he does by tossing it into a river. Only, as it turns out, his throw was inaccurate. Unbeknownst to the murderer, the ring bounces off a railing and falls to the ground, short of the river. As viewers, we “know” that the murderer’s mistake has screwed him.

But, in a remarkable twist of fate, his mistake didn’t screw him. In fact, his mistake actually saved him. How? Because the police ultimately became convinced of his guilt, but were forced to let him go when they found a vagrant in possession of the very ring he had meant to dispose, and charged the vagrant with murder instead. In other words, his mistake actually saved his hide.

Why do I raise the movie Match Point? Well, for one thing, I’d rather write about anything other than the Jets game (presidential politics, anyone? How about the new TV season?) But, the real reason I raise Match Point is because today’s game had a Match Point kind of moment — a real swerve that ultimately made all the difference.

The Jets accepted a five-yard penalty against the Bills near the end of the first quarter, when declining it would have given Buffalo fourth down. The Jets presumably wanted to force the Bills to kick a longer field goal. But, it backfired. The Bills completed a long pass, and soon enough were first and goal. The Jets were dopes.

Or were they? Next thing you know, Roscoe Parrish was falling down and a Trent Edwards pass was picked by the Jets, who ran it back 92 yards. A turnaround of either 10 or 14 points, depending. The Jets’ mistake worked to their advantage. Lots of other bad stuff happened, but that was a real killer, even though the Bills later returned the favor by returning a Brett Favre pass for a TD (right after I’d uttered the words, “The Jets shouldn’t throw the ball the rest of the game.”)

So, now what? I could say a lot of negative things about this game, this team and this season. I’m certainly thinking them. But, I’m not going to do that. I’m also not going to do the whole rah-rah, “We’re still 5-3” shtick, because that’s bull; two divisional losses in a row against inferior teams doesn’t deserve rah-rah.

I will say this: the team has exhausted its room for error; it has largely squandered the gift of a 4-0/5-1 start. The mental errors and even the coaching errors need to be corrected starting now. Above all, they’ve got to find a way to run the ball. In spite of everything else that went bad, a solid run attack probably would have let them win this game.

They’ve got the biggest line in football, yet can’t pound out a drive-sustaining yard when they need it, or otherwise take the pressure off the passing game. The Bills have all the ingredients for an outstanding ball-control offense, punctuated by the occasional fling to Evans or Parrish. They’d better work it out, or soon enough it’ll be “Match Point” for the Bills, and they won’t be the ones jumping over the net when the game is over.

Let me end this on a high note: I watched the game at home, and listened to the Bills’ local announcers via Sirius satellite radio. Suddenly, I heard announcer John Murphy say, “Here’s a big hello to the New York City Buffalo Bills Backers, who are watching the game at McFadden’s, in the heart of enemy territory. You ever see that You Tube video (referencing the Raiders game)?”

Cool stuff, right? We’re famous.

E-mail feedback and comments to Phil Mann at
pjmann at nyc.rr.com

This past week, the Bills became the last team in the entire NFL to play a divisional opponent.

We could have used an extra week.

No reason to dwell on it; if we split our divisional games, we still have an excellent playoff shot: we’ll get ‘em in Buffalo. I mean, Toronto. Whatever. Some place where it’s cold outside.

Enough of that. Rather than focus on a game we’d rather forget, let’s move on to an old NYCBBB standby – the Calico Jack’s Fan of the Week.

Allow me to introduce our first, and perhaps last, Fan of the Week for 2008: Tim Downey. Otherwise known (by me, anyway) as “The Guy Who Dances Like A Hillbilly – And I Mean That With Nothing But Respect And Fondness – After The Bills Score.”

You should know two things immediately: one, Tim dances only after touchdowns, never field goals (“I’m a little superstitious that way.”) And, he’s no hillbilly: Born and raised in Lancaster, he holds a graduate degree from Rutgers. Tim also works as a sales person and is a part-time actor (one day, he hopes to reverse that and make acting his full-time job. I smell Dancing with the Stars down the road.)

So, where’d the dance come from?

Let’s let Tim tell the story: “The dance came from a moment of pure joy last year. I don’t remember the game but I was so happy that we scored (a rarity last year) that I started to do a little hop and jig. It changes a little each game depending on the space available or how out of breath (see beer) I am in the middle of it.”

While we all enjoy Tim’s dance – the more he does it, the more points it means we’ve scored – he has an especially captive audience of more than a dozen friends who sit with him and cheer him on, many of whom he met through watching Bills and Sabres games. One of the group, Brian (aka, “The Guy In The Zubaz”) even maintains an Excel spreadsheet to determine who’ll be going to Calico Jack’s each week. The first good reason I’ve heard to actually learn Excel.

Like many if not all Bills fans, Tim has his favorite team memories. One is obvious: the Comeback Game. The other is far more personal, and once again let’s let Tim tell the story himself:

“My first favorite memory is watching the AFC East championship in 1988 when we won and fans rushed the field and tore down the goal posts. I watched the game from home and was struck by the pure joy and anarchy of the situation. A little later I heard on 97 Rock that on Monday, they were going to cut up the goal posts and sell the pieces. I begged my dad to try and get a piece. Lo and behold when I got home from school on Monday there was my Dad in the kitchen with three pieces of post. He still has them and I have a piece as well.”

Excellent. Let’s hope we’re cutting up some goal posts again this January.

E-mail feedback and comments to Phil Mann at
pjmann at nyc.rr.com

Now I’ve seen it all – precisely because I couldn’t see it all.

As was the case for anyone not actually attending Sunday’s Bills/Charge-less, I mean Bills/Chargers game, I missed lots of it because of “Balloon-Gate”. More on that in a moment.

What I could see was a wonderful sight. I’ll admit that I feared an Arizona-type of offensive explosion from San Diego, but it never happened. I also feared that the Chargers would take a late lead, but thanks to a play-of-the-game interception by Kawika Mitchell (followed soon after by his not-the-play-of-the-game-but-still-very-impressive forced fumble and recovery), the Bills once again won a game they might have lost last year. The Bills were also helped tremendously by the true play of the game in terms of actual merit – a near-miraculous Lee Evans TD reception that almost invoked memories of Mitchell’s former Giants teammate, David Tyree.

Back to the balloons. I’ve searched hard for the right words to sum up my feelings, and I think I’ve finally put them together: what the f**k? Seriously, what kind of stadium is brought to its knees by Mylar balloons? What’s going to happen next – a flood because of some kid with one of those wands that blows bubbles? Western NY has enough problems. We don’t need this.

Nonetheless, some good things came out of the truthfully comic situation. Those of us at Calico Jack’s maintained a generally good attitude, and found creative ways to stay connected to the game – mainly thanks to the Internet and frequent calls to friends actually in attendance. We sang and clapped (sort of) to Shout when word came of a Bills score. And we became quite excited by something we usually take for granted – the game reappearing on our TVs.

I do want to point out something I read in one of the post-game news accounts:

“With no power, though, the atmosphere was a little surreal. The crowd would cheer without prompting and there was none of the loud music being pumped in through the expensive sound system. Also missing were the commercials being broadcast during breaks in the action.”

Cheering without prompting, no commercials and the ability to actually talk to the person next to you? Sounds like an improvement to me.

Bring back the balloons! Just leave the satellite alone, please.

E-mail feedback and comments to Phil Mann at
pjmann at nyc.rr.com

OK, short column this week, so let’s get right to it. Here are five legitimately good things about today’s Arizona game:

1) We don’t have to suffer through another quarterback controversy

2) Next week’s our bye week, giving Edwards an extra week to recover (and an extra week for the authorities to track down the bus that hit him)

3) It was a non-conference loss. Sure, I prefer non-conference wins to non-conference losses, but as categories of loss go, this isn’t so bad

4) Pre-season, most of us would have signed up for 4-1 at the break. I’d predicted 3-2

5) Best of all…the game’s over

So, what does this all mean? The game exposed some of the Bills’ lingering weaknesses: vulnerability against truly diverse passing games; inconsistent O-Line performance; questionable first-half game planning; JP’s grooming habits. But the team’s young, and I would think that all but this last weakness are correctable.

Seriously, take this final point into consideration: as a result of beginning the season 4-0, the Bills need to play .500 ball over their last 12 games to go 10-6, which gives us a legitimate playoff shot. It’s going to be an interesting, exciting season.

E-mail feedback and comments to Phil Mann at
pjmann at nyc.rr.com

I write to you in a vodka-induced haze — as my NYCBBB colleague Kevin Smith knows and understands, I’ve committed to maintaining certain practices as long as the Bills are winning. Lord knows how I’ll feel showing up to Calico Jack’s in early October wearing my good luck shorts and a Bills polo.

For this week, however, I was far away from Calico Jack’s. In fact, believe it or not, I watched this week’s game from Weston, Florida, literally across the street from the former home of Trent Green, former Fish and now Rams’ quarterback. My brother in law, from whose house I watched the game, went to great lengths to assure me Green no longer lived across the street (as he did just months ago), lest I decide to egg the house at halftime.

Which I would have. Who among you didn’t think that Rams might have had the Bills’ number today?

Yet, once again, the superior Trent — Edwards — and the Bills responded, this time with 25 unanswered points on the road. Yes, the Rams generally stink. And, yes, the Bills seemingly forgot to show up for multiple quarters. But someway, somehow, this team adjusts at the half. And now, against all odds, our Buffalo Bills are 4-0.

The Bills have no cake walk the rest of the way. But in order to be a playoff contender, they had to take advantage of their early-season schedule, which they have. If they play .500 ball the rest of the way, they’ll go 10-6. We all want even better, of course. I’m concerned about Parrish’s absence, and now McGee’s, potentially. I’m also concerned that this team plays with fire — they were demonstrably outplayed for much of the game by an apparently crappy team, the seemingly comfortable margin of victory notwithstanding. It’s one thing to come back against the Raiders and Rams — the Pats and Chargers are another matter.

But, those are worries for another today. As of now, we’re enjoying the Bills’ eighth-ever 4-0 team, and the first since 1992. Up next…a chance to go 5-0 for the first time since 1991, and second time ever.

E-mail feedback and comments to Phil Mann at
pjmann at nyc.rr.com

A look at recent Bills’ history:

1988: 3-0 through three games; made the AFC Championship Game

1991: 3-0 through three games; made the Super Bowl.

1992: 3-0 through three games; made the Super Bowl.

2008: 3-0 through three games; ??????????????

Not to get ahead ourselves, but the Bills have established an intriguing track record over the past two decades when winning their first three games of the season. By the way, each of the Bills’ three-prior 3-0 teams won their fourth games. Let’s hope the St. Louis Rams have a healthy respect for history.

But back to the here and now, and your first place Buffalo Bills.

The Bills pulled rabbits out of their hats (and, to a degree, their heads out of their behinds) for the second consecutive week. And for the second consecutive week, they won a game they clearly would have lost last year, or pretty much any other time over the past eight years.

Edwards, you could (and probably should) argue, was the star and stud of the game, once again. Does anyone still believe JP Losman should be the starter? I happen to really like JP, but this is becoming Edwards’ team more and more with each game.

In the end, believe it or not, my two heroes were Donte Whitner and Raider Head Coach Lane Kiffin. Whitner for doing something I usually abhor – dishing out a blatantly late hit in the end zone. But, you know what? Just like a pitcher sometimes plunks a batter to “gently” reestablish some boundaries, Whitner made clear to the Raiders that you don’t try to show up the Bills in Buffalo and get away with it. Besides, the Raiders were dumb enough to get a taunting penalty on the same play, and the infractions cancelled each other out.

As for Lane Kiffin…you know that cell-phone service commercial where the mom yells at her family for “wasting” minutes that can be carried over to the next month? I’m thinking Kiffin must have thought his two time outs could carry over to next week’s game. Why else would he allow the Bills to run the clock down to three seconds after they were already in field goal range? I’ve got nothing against Kiffin, and can only imagine the horror of working for Al Davis. But, more decisions like that, and he’ll be enjoying life as a college head coach before long.

Finally, a shout out to the electric environment at Calico Jack’s; the amazing service staff that lets us enjoy every score with food on our plates and drinks in our hands; and a DJ who never fails to play Shout! right on cue. Calico’s has been great.

I’ve been saying since last year that, while Trent Edwards and Doug Flutie could hardly be more different as quarterbacks, there’s a chance Trent could have that intangible “something” that makes the Bills win games. That happened once again, against a team many people believe are Super Bowl bound.

This week, in fact, it wasn’t so intangible; 20 for 25 is tangibly good in anyone’s book.

My MVP for the week, though, was Fred Jackson. He and Marshawn could give the Bills a tandem we may not have seen since Thurman Thomas and Kenny Davis (not that I’m comparing anyone to Thurman just yet). The Bills would not have won this week without Jackson.

I’ll admit that I didn’t think they were going to win, regardless, Jackson or no Jackson. Certainly not after a near-disastrous third quarter in which the Bills hardly touched the ball. Fellow NYCBBBer Kevin Smith and I agreed that the Bills found themselves in the odd circumstance of being behind, but still needing to kill clock simply because their defense was so exhausted from playing nearly an entire quarter without a break in 100-degree heat (which was pretty much the temperature at Calico Jack’s. Let’s pray the AC is fixed by next week).

Two weeks in a row, the Bills showed us that this is clearly not the same team we’ve gotten too-used to in recent years. Last week, they went for the jugular after recovering a turnover. This week, Trent pulled the trigger on a huge 37-yarder to Lee Evans in crunch time. Thank you, Turk Schonert!

Not all was rosy: Jason Peters certainly could have used a pre-season, and the Bills were really vulnerable to the run for a piece of the second half. Plus, after a near mistake-free week, they had some painful penalties this week.

But, that’s all secondary. The Bills are 2-0, the bars are insane, and we’ll no doubt be favored against the Raiders. It’s been far too long since things have been this exciting.

By the numbers:

1: The number of AFC East teams entering next week with the same starting QB they had for game 16 last year – that would be Buffalo

3: The number of seasons since the Bills had won their opener

6: TE Robert Royal’s new personal best for receptions in a single game

10: How I’d rank Calico Jack’s opening week performance, on a 1-10 scale. I thought they did a great job

27: The total of Buffalo’s 34 points involving special teams

30: Yards covered by Trent Edwards’ “go for the jugular” TD pass immediately after the Bills recovered a fumbled Seahawks kick off return

102: WR Lee Evans’ total reception yards; for the sake of comparison, he didn’t get his 100th reception yard last year until game three

120: Roscoe Parrish’s total punt-return yards in game one, a new team record

You get the idea; it was a great opener, a great home opener, and a great way to start the season. I haven’t been this excited by a first game since the Bills beat the Pats 31-0.

Speaking of the Pats…if Brett Favre had accepted the Packers’ offer to sit at home for $2 million a year, would he have been the Pats’ first call once Tom Brady went down? I mean, on paper he’d be a weird fit but, still…he’s Brett Favre. I suspect the Pats would not have called him, nor am I sure that Favre would have accepted being a caretaker. But, it would have been some media circus.

Back to the Bills…should we be excited? Yep. Do we need the offense to contribute a higher percentage of our points? Definitely. But, special teams look solid and the defense seems improved. If offense can gain some consistency, the Bills should be a force to reckon with in a suddenly transformed division. The offense’s decision to take a shot at the end zone after a Seahawks turnover was a welcome respite to the typical two-yard push up the middle.

Hope to see everyone next week.

Three signs I’m old(er):

1. For a while when I was a kid in Niagara Falls, we shared a phone line with our next door neighbor. It was called a “party line.”
2. I vividly remember having to get up to change channels – and how lucky we felt to actually have access to Canadian television, giving us a total of seven channels instead of four (assuming you counted the UHF channel, 29, as a station).
3. I was an adult the last time the Bills made the playoffs.

Don’t scoff at that last point. Last year marked our eighth consecutive playoff-less season. Based on the crowds I see at McFadden’s and Calico Jack’s on football Sundays, I’m guessing the vast majority of our crew hasn’t seen a Bills playoff game since they were teens.

The overarching question, then, is whether or not this is the year – finally – that the Bills find a way to play a 17th meaningful game (at least).

Of course, that’s the question pretty much every year. But, optimism seems higher this year than perhaps any time since the early Bledsoe era. That was a pretty exciting six quarters, wasn’t it?

My very unscientific research indicates more of a cautious optimism than an aggressive sense that this team is destined for a high seed. Maybe that’s because of the team’s propensity for injury. Maybe it’s Jason Peters’ ridiculous hold out. Or, could it be concerns about the largely untested Trent Edwards?

It’s probably all of that – along with a healthy dose of cynicism that prevents Bills fans from getting overly optimistic or carried away. Of course, Red Sox fans used to be the same way, and just look at them now.

Personally, I’m excited about the team in a way I haven’t been in a while. I’m not prepared to say the “P” word, but barring injury the defense should be far better, the special teams should still be good to very good, and Marshawn should continue to prove a better runner than driver. If – if – Edwards can find his receivers (including, I hope, a rebounded Lee Evans, a talented newbie in James Hardy, and a speedy, perpetually-on-the-verge-of-being-incorporated-into-the-game-plan Roscoe Parrish), this team could put something fun together.

All of which could still mean .500 in a tough division. But, I believe that would be a bad break. So, forget what I said a moment ago about the “P” word: for the first time perhaps since the Super Bowl years, I am predicting a wild card birth for my beloved Bills.

If I prove right, give me credit. If I’m wrong…well, it wouldn’t be the first time. What do you expect from someone who remembers party line phones?